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Daily Weather Brief Examples
​Monday, February 2nd, 2014
Ice (sleet) began falling around 3am.
There was a crunchy coating of ice accumulation on the pavement by 3:30a.
The North changed to heavy snow by 4am, in the South it changed over before 5am.
***Under today's accumulation, there will be a thin layer of ice***
 
Forecast:
Heavy, wet, waterlogged snow, with large clumpy flakes, continue to fall through midday.
The morning commute will be tough, since the heavest snowfall rate will be most intense from 6am to 10am.
Winds won't be an issue today.
Worst of snow is done by 1pm, totaling a half foot, light snow continues through 4pm.
All snow is done by 5pm.
Total accumulations of 5-8" in the North, 6-9 in the South by 6pm
Power outages/tree branches down likely due to weight of snow.
No extreme cold to follow, just the average 26 degrees tonight.
Sunshine and 36 tomorrow.
 
To avoid confusion: The Winter Storm Warning until 7pm refers to today's snow. There is also a concurrent Winter Storm Watch issused for tomorrow night/Wednesday morning's ICE and SLEET. That storm changes to heavy rain by daybreak Wednesday.
 
All is quiet until Saturday night, when a coastal storm is likely.





Tuesday, February 11, 2014

You're probably very confused about this forecast. Snow begins tomorrow night, and yet I still can't give you a firm answer as to how much or when it ends. But when the weather service issues a winter storm watch for a duration of 36 hours, that's pretty big.

Thursday's storm has something unique: the element of surprise. Whatever happens in those 36 hours from tomorrow night into Friday morning will be "wintry". While meteorologists are losing hair to try and pinpoint a forecast, their toils will mostly be lost due to so many last minute changes for this now-casting type event.

Just keep in mind that the forecast will change (at the very least be tweaked) roughly 5 times through Friday morning. This includes the start time, changeover time, change-backover time, and end time. Of course, the snowfall accumulations are based on only one of many scenarios. So, naturally, those will go up or down too.

Keep watching the forecast, and hopefully we'll all have a better handle on the event tomorrow morning. 



Thursday, February 13, 2014

After 8 inches fell in the city this morning (at some points at a verifiable rate of 6"/hour), it is now "graupeling". Meaning, the snow is falling so heavily at 9am that the snowflakes don't have a chance to reach the ground before being swept up back into the cloud, and freezing with water droplets. A graupel pellet is not hail, nor sleet, nor ice pellets rather it is "rimed snow" or "snow pellets". It is also called "soft hail" and look and feels like a styrofoam bead. You can squash it flat between your fingers, but it also hurts as it falls. 

 
There will be sleet mixing in, as we get closer to midday.
 
New TOTAL snowfall accumulations are 10-16 inches by 7am tomorrow.  The lull in the action begins at 1pm in the South, and 2pm in the North. There will be wind, flurries, and spotty drizzle, (but mostly clouds) from 2pm until 8pm tonight.
 
An additional snowfall of 1-3 inches falls after 8pm and lasts until 5am tomorrow morning. 
 
The sun returns tomorrow afternoon as highs reach 40.
 
The next round of snow arrives late Saturday morning, and drops a few inches into Saturday night. More on this tomorrow.
 
Bitter cold and sunshine into Sunday.
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Friday, February 14th, 2014
 
Don't let the sunshine and 40 degrees today fool you. Those winds are going to be howling throughout the day, making it feel much colder. The wind, combined with sunshine, will allow for the sticky, clingy snow from last night to fall in sloppy, wet globs, throughout the day.  Look out for unexpected plops. In all, between 2-5 inches fell overnight, in rapid bursts after midnight, ending exactly at 6am, when the Winter Storm Warning expired. Contrary to local government criticism, our Weather Service office did a FANTASTIC job forecasting this storm so accurately, so far in advance. Final totals of ALL snow are around a foot within the 5 boros. (Numbers havent been posted as of this writing).
 
Tonight is cold, with clouds returning. Tomorrow morning starts grey with snow beginning around the midday. Saturday's snowfall is a completely different storm, and is not "part 3" of yesterday's snow. The snowfall may briefly be heavy tomorrow afternoon/evening as the storm intesifies offshore. Snow ends after midnight/early morning Sunday. As it looks now, totals will be in the 3-6 range. Even with a worst case scenario, they won't go much higher than an additional 2 inches.
 
As for records: We are already in the Top 10 snowiest Februaries and snowiest seasons in NYC. Including tomorrow's snow, we'll easily reach the Top 5 snowiest Februaries by this Tuesday, and will only be a FEW inches away from the THIRD SNOWIEST WINTER, potentially beating out the 2010-2011 season which had 61.9 inches.
 
Sunday and Monday are sunny and cold. After Tuesday's mix to rain, the rest of the month will be in the 40s and 50s. No more snow until (at least) March.



Thursday, February 27, 2014
Cold enough for ya? This morning's wind chill was 8. There's a good shot of breaking record lows at some locations tomorrow, but the stinging pain of Friday morning's wind chill will make you run to your destination.  As the core of the Arctic air approaches tonight (that's what creates this afternoon's flurry bursts), wake up weather will be in the low teens, with sub-zero wind chills tomorrow. Saturday is quiet and cold. Sunday night offers two scenarios: the first (my pick) brings rain and sleet into the borough after dusk, changing to all snow Monday afternoon, ending late Monday night. Small, mostly messy, accumulations. The colder scenario has all snow falling, with no mixing, giving us a plowable accumulation by Monday morning, with snow lasting until Monday night.  There's a less likely chance of the "all snow" scenario happening, because it will be March: stronger and longer sun does funny things to the forecast.




Tuesday, March 25th, 2014 
I wouldn't be surprised if we saw no snow at all tonight. Still, a dusting is possible, but this storm pulls away so quickly, that there's really nothing to worry about here. Props are in order for the two favorite global forecasting models that saw this storm 8-10 days ago…not much has changed since it was first plotted on the charts around St. Patrick's Day. By tomorrow morning, the sun returns with a breezy chill that lasts all day. Warmer weather arrives Thursday and will feel fantastic with highs that near 50 with full sunny skies. Friday brings clouds and showers, but as temperatures climb to 60, Friday evening plans will just be cool and damp. Overnight lows only dip into the mid 40s. Saturday is equally as crummy with clouds and showers, but the weekend turns brighter by Sunday. Monday will be the best day by far: if we break 66 degrees (very possible), then March 31st will be the warmest day this month.